June 03, 2013
Soy Meal Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
The soybean complex was stronger throughout today’s trading session, ignoring the mid morning sell off in the corn market. The soy meal future (ZMN13) continued its upside trend with support coming from solid crush demand and strong exports over the past several weeks. Net meal sales reported this past Friday, due to the shortened Memorial Day weekend, came in at one hundred forty-nine thousand two hundred tons for the 2012/13 marketing year. Cumulative sales are at one hundred and one percent of the USDA forecast, nineteen percent above the five year average.
SMN13 is moving towards an overbought condition based on several short term momentum indicators. The contract has traded up eighteen percent, on an intraday basis, since April 18. Although the trend still appears to be up, a tradable pullback may be close at hand. Initial resistance may come in at 458.00-465.00, with stronger resistance at 470.00. Initial support may come in at 432.00-441.00, with stronger support at 418.00-423.50.
May 08, 2013
Soybean Meal Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
The Soy meal future (ZMN13) traded up today with traders squaring positions ahead of the USDA Crop Production and Supply Demand data on May 10. Strong cash demand for beans and meal, manifest in a strong meal basis across the US, along with expectations for an increase in US soybean crush data on Friday from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE), led to a strong upward push for ZMN13 in the morning, before profit taking set in leading to a daily midrange close.
Short term momentum indicators are fairly neutral for ZMN13. The contract continues to trade in a well defined range of 385.00-437.00. Over the near term initial resistance may come in at 415.00-425.00, with stronger resistance at 430.00-437.00. Initial support may come in at 394.00-401.00, with stronger support at 386.00-388.00.
April 03, 2013
Soybean Meal Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
The Soy Meal future (ZMK13) has traded down roughly seven and a half percent, in sympathy with the sell off in the soybean and grain markets, since the March 28 USDA grain stocks data was released. Although meal export sales have been strong, concerns over the large forthcoming South American soybean crop and competition from Argentinean soy meal may continue to pressure SMK13 on any rallies. With an upcoming USDA Crop Production report on April 10, it would not be a surprise to see a short term bounce in ZMK13, giving traders with a bearish view better trade location to sell Meal.
ZMK13 is oversold based on several short term momentum studies. Over the near term initial support for ZMK13 may come in at 392.70-394.00, with stronger support at 386.70-389.20. On a bounce initial resistance may come in at 408.00-411.00 and stronger selling at 414.00-418.50.
January 10, 2013
Grains Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
The soy meal future (ZMH13) dropped roughly fourteen percent from December 17 to January 4 on a larger US soybean crop than initially forecasted, improving prospects for the South American soybean crop and cancellations of several Chinese soy bean cargos over the past few weeks. Crop Production, Grain Stocks, and supply demand data will be released by the USDA on Friday January 11, at twelve o’clock eastern time. Traders will be looking to see if the US crop grew even bigger than the last USDA estimates. Soy meal export sales have been strong overall, even though the numbers released today were mid range of market expectations.
ZMH13 is oversold based on intermediate term momentum indicators and has only worked off a bit of its deeply oversold readings on shorter term indicators. The intermediate term trend for ZMH13 still appears to be down and traders will probably look for strength to sell into. Initial resistance may come in at 417.00-424.00 with stronger selling 430.00-439.00. ZMH13 may find some short term support 381.00-390.00.
Grains Trader, November 3, 2012
Soy meal basis the December contract (SMZ12) traded on a bearish trajectory Friday, November 02, 2012, in line with the general risk off day for financial and commodity markets. Not only was SMZ12 reacting to the general market environment, but over the last couple of days two private firms updated their 2012/13 US production estimates. The increase in previously forecasted output levels, for corn and soybeans, created selling pressure ahead of the USDA Supply/Demand updates November 09, 2012.
The market is closely monitoring South American weather and planting progress for corn and soybeans, which has thus far been slower than initially hoped by traders looking for bearish price action. Weather forecasts out Sunday evening for the coming planting season in Brazil and Argentina will be watched closely by traders as they try to gauge potential 2012/13 production levels.
Ultimately SMZ12 will seek out prices based on any significant adjustments to supply demand estimates by the USDA November 09, 2012 and expectations for the planting and growing season in South America.
SMZ12 technically, based on momentum studies, gives a somewhat mixed view. On an intermediate term basis SMZ12 is coming off an oversold situation, whereas on a short term basis SMZ12 is coming off of a marginally overbought situation. Initial resistance for SMZ12 over the near term should appear 480.00-485.00 followed by 488.00-490.50. Initial support could appear 471.00-473.00 with more significant support 461.00-465.00.
Soymeal Futures Broker, May 22, 2012
The CME soymeal futures contract basis July (SMN12) followed the soybean market down $11.5 per ton. The entire grain and oilseed complex were down today on the back of reduced worries over weather forecasts for less rain and heat, later in the forecast period. Concern about future Chinese demand also appears to be slowly seeping into the soybean market.
SMN12 appears to be vulnerable to further selling in the near term. Longer frame momentum studies indicate the potential for further downside action. Initial resistance should come in at 415.00-418.00 and then 422.00. A move above 430.00 would negate our near term downside bias. Initial support comes in at 398.00-400.00. A move below this level could see a break towards 380.00.
April 6, 2012
Soybean Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
The soybean complex continued to trade up this holiday shortened week, after a small pullback in the prior week ahead of the March 30 Planting Intentions Report. The May Soybean futures contract (SK12), pulled back 30 cents going into the report, but subsequently rallied 79 cents from the open on March 30, 2012 into the close Thursday, ahead of the April 10, 2012 USDA Global Supply/Demand Report. The Soy Meal front month contract (SMK12) traded into the Planting Intentions Report with an upward bias from the previous Friday’s close and never looked back after the March 30 report. SMK12 tacked on another $16/ton, closing the week April 05, 2012 at 391.9/ton.
On a technical basis SMK12 is overbought, based on several momentum studies, but the trend is still up. In the near term SMK12 should have support from 365-375 with an initial upside target of 410-415.