April 16, 2013
Rough Rice Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
Since hitting an intraday low of 14.50, the Rough Rice future (ZRK13) has rallied roughly ten percent over the past four weeks. The contract appears to be stuck in a range of 14.50-16.50 and today’s rally coincided with the risk on day for several commodities, including wheat corn and soybeans. ZRK13 recovered almost fifty percent of yesterday’s losses, which the contract suffered along with many other commodities and financial markets on the general risk off day.
Short term momentum studies would be supportive of further selling pressure, while intermediate term studies would be supportive of further gains. Over the near term initial support for ZRK13 may come in at 15.23-15.40 and stronger support at 14.90-15.05. Initial resistance may come in at 15.85-16.10, with strong resistance at 16.50.
March 5, 2013
Rice Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
The May Rough Rice future (ZRK13) has traded down approximately eight percent on an intraday basis, since hitting a high of 16.67 on February 8. Recently released data from the International Grains Council (IGC) forecast global rice production to increase by one and two tenths percent to 472 million metric tons, on the back of increased plantings in the 2013/2014 season, an all time high. Inventories in Thailand have nearly doubled over the past three years according to the IGC and the country is expected to become the largest exporter this year, potentially pressuring prices to the downside as they market their surplus.
ZRK13 is oversold based on several short term momentum indicators. Although the longer term trend appears to be down, the contract may find support over the near term at 15.25-15.30 for a bounce to work off the oversold condition. On a bounce, initial resistance may come in at 15.50-15.80, with stronger selling at 16.00-16.50
February 6, 2013
Rice Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
Over the past five days the rough rice future (ZRH13) has rallied roughly six percent from 15.36-16.29 on an intraday basis. According to Hackett Financial Advisors the US needs to expand its rice acreage by ten percent to ease the current shortfall. Ideas that Brazil may reduce exports and possibly import rice, due to a less than ideal growing environment, appears to be fundamental news which may support ZRH13’s technical breakout above 15.90.
ZRH13 is overbought based on several short and intermediate term momentum indicators, but the intermediate term trend appears to be up. The contract may see some profit taking around the 16.33 area over the near term. It may need to back and fill to work off some the overbought condition. Over the longer term ZRH13 appears to be headed towards 16.80. Initial support may come in at 15.94-15.89. Stronger support may come in at 15.73-15.76.
January 22, 2013
Rough Rice Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
The March Rough Rice future (ZRH13) is trading in a two dollar range of 14.90-16.90. The contract is moving toward an overbought condition based on several short term momentum indicators, but has room to move higher before signaling an overbought situation. On a short term basis initial resistance may come in at 15.51-15.55 and then 15.60-15.65. Initial support for ZRH13 may come in at 15.19-15.25 with further support at 15.06-15.11.
November 14, 2012
Rice Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
The rough rice market, basis the weekly nearest futures chart has been trading between the September 2011 high at 18.255 and January’s 2012 low at 13.50. Intermediate term momentum studies are moderately oversold and shorter term momentum studies are becoming more heavily oversold.
The rough rice futures contract basis January (ZRF13) is retesting its lows from June 2012 at today’s close of 14.65. The trend for ZRF13 continues to be down, but support on profit taking may come in fairly soon around the 13.90-14.25. Resistance on a bounce should appear initially around 14.75-14.96 and further resistance should be found at 15.10-15.50.
Rough Rice Futures Broker, May 16, 2012
From September 13, 2012 to March 09, 2012 the CME rough rice futures contract basis July (RN12) lost 27 percent of its value after news that India would end its export ban of non-basmati varieties, previously in place for three years,. With forecasts for a 7.7 percent increase in India’s harvest of rice to 103.4 million tons and larger State reserves, expectations for increased exports by India has pressured rice prices to the downside and the market, over the intermediate to longer term, seems to have further downside risks.
RN12 bottomed March 09 and the contract subsequently rallied to an intraday high of 16.04 on April 25, and in the process worked off its technically oversold condition. The contract is presently trading in a range of 13.50-16.90. RN12 should find initial resistance in the 16.09-16.13 area and then 16.75. Initial support for the contract comes in 15.15-15.35. The fundamentals on the supply demand side appear to be bearish and an eventual break below 15.00 should send the market back towards 14.00. If RN12 trades above 17.00 we would have to review our bearish stance.